Marin Voice: Keeping Northgate housing affordable key to proposal

Redevelopment at Northgate mall provides a golden opportunity to create a real “Town Center” for North San Rafael, while helping to address San Rafael’s affordable housing needs.

With the closing of a number of the mall’s anchor stores, the property is ready for a new life. The site’s new owners, Merlone Geier, propose a modern, urban village with retail, park-like spaces, a movie theater and as much as 1,396 units of new housing.

The idea of converting some of the space at Northgate to housing is not new — it is a proposal that aligns with the San Rafael General Plan vision for a North San Rafael Town Center. Hence there was considerable community opposition when, in 2019, the group proposed to use the site for a Costco that included a large gas station.

None of this reflected the Town Center vision, nor did not square with San Rafael’s Climate Action Plan. The developers took note and, in 2021, came back with a new, more holistic plan.

The problems for shopping malls began well before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, as online shopping undermined the profitability of many traditional retailers, leaving behind empty storefronts and parking lots. The pandemic accelerated this trend. Across the nation, more than 60 shopping malls have been converted to mixed-use projects, providing housing and a resident customer base for remaining onsite shops and services.

Here in Marin, as more residents are vaccinated and business restrictions lifted, local employers are struggling to hire staff, particularly for lower-wage jobs. The lack of affordable workforce housing is a significant barrier to employee recruitment and economic recovery.

San Rafael is woefully behind in meeting its Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) production numbers as mandated by the state. Three-quarters of the way through this eight-year cycle, the city has produced only 19% of its goal for residents with income in the low and very low range. It has reached only 6% of its moderate-income goal and 55% of its market-rate goal. The next RHNA round, which starts in 2023, will have even higher goals and stricter penalties for failure to achieve those goals.

The redevelopment of Northgate would go a long way toward helping San Rafael achieve its housing goals, particularly if the developer maximizes the number of affordable units. San Rafael’s inclusionary zoning requirement provides the option to create 10% of the units for moderate-income households and 5% for low-income households — a formula which could guarantee more than 200 deed-restricted affordable units.

San Rafael officials should resist any attempt to allow an in-lieu fee as an alternative to onsite affordable housing at Northgate, and affordable units should be distributed throughout the project.

Marin is the most segregated county in the Bay Area. Even in San Rafael, the most diverse community in Marin, nearly half of the city’s non-White population is concentrated in just two census tracts where approximately 88% of the residents are people of color. City officials should leverage the inclusionary zoning requirement to create an equitable pattern of housing development at this site.

By integrating retail, housing and services in a walkable community close to transit and employment centers, this project could serve as a model of sustainable development.

Onsite services and entertainment mean that residents are less likely to jump into their cars to shop or go to the movies. And Northgate Town Square could provide workforce housing for nearby major employers like BioMarin and Kaiser Permanente — shortening commutes for some who now drive from outside Marin. Providing affordable units onsite could also support Northgate’s retail employees, creating a car-free commute for them.

Northgate Town Square is a large project. There is an almost automatic assumption that if a large project can be made smaller, potential impacts will be less. Too often the result is a loss of housing opportunity, where impacts were actually non-existent or could have been mitigated.

The Marin Environmental Housing Collaborative strongly urges the City Council to state its desire to maintain the unit count in the Northgate application until the environmental impact report is completed. If there are impacts, the EIR will identify them and prescribe mitigation measures, including reducing the number of homes, or other solutions to the problems identified in the report.

Robert Pendoley, of North San Rafael, is chair of the Marin Environmental Housing Collaborative.

Marin Voice: Keeping Northgate housing affordable key to proposal